The below picture is a modification of [Wayback/Archive] 2347: Dependency – explain xkcd
Title text: Someday ImageMagick will finally break for good and we’ll have a long period of scrambling as we try to reassemble civilization from the rubble.
It actually emphasises the problem both that [Wayback/Archive] xkcd 2347: Dependency is way too optimistic, and that everyone uses that to point out dependency issues or worse as a thought-terminating cliché .
The second problem amplifies itself by increasing the popularity of the comic, and the attracts people to use it even if they hardly know about dependencies.
In turn it diminishes the meaning of it, kind of making it more optimistic by basically amplifying the message “there is just one really fragile project our design/infrastructure depends on” (the infamous “A project some random person in Nebraska has been thanklessly maintaining since 2003”).
The sad reality is that this single fragile project is just not true. Modern development and infrastructure systems usually are underpinned by package managers installing the complex graphs of dependencies of which dozens, heck thousands are maintained for “free” by, more often than not, a single worn out maintainer per dependency.
It’s just that over the last few decades usually only one such package at a time posed a serious problem. But with dependencies on very small building blocks, the amount of blocks is rising as is their usage. Just two examples out of the Node JS world (mind you, each development and infrastructure stack lives in comparable worlds):
Mind you, these links are 2021 and 2022, so the numbers have increased.
Many think such problems are limited to programming errors, but over the last decade these have become the tip of the iceberg. The real problems now are that maintainers are fading away as they have for instance been worn out for too long, or simply are aging. So what we have seen over the last decade is the rise of supply chain attacks.
One such example was the XZ utils backdoor which was, by sheer luck because one guy tried to investigate why connecting over ssh had become much slower than before, barely detected in time. It had a CVSS score of 10.0, the highest possible score.
So be prepared that the below picture will have “your business structure” on the top, and towards the bottom a bunch of small fragile pillars with the text “many projects, each maintained by a worn out person on the verge of collapse”.
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